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Today β€” 10 April 2021Main stream

Harry’s emotional dash home for funeral

10 April 2021 at 11:48
Prince Harry will make an emotional dash from California to attend his grandfather’s funeral, Buckingham Palace has confirmed.

Aussies in Bali get COVID jabs quicker in luxury hotel hubs

10 April 2021 at 11:48
Australians in Bali are being vaccinated for COVID-19 quicker than they would be at home.

Charles’ tribute to β€˜dear papa’, Harry flying home, funeral details revealed

10 April 2021 at 11:48
Prince Charles has paid tribute to his β€œdear papa”, saying that Prince Philip would have been β€œamazed” at the reaction to his passing.

How Philip dealt with Prince Andrew’s scandal

10 April 2021 at 11:48
Prince Philip spent years as The Queen’s enforcer and he was called in one last time to sort out a major headache for the Royals - his disgraced son Prince Andrew.

The Prince Philip I knew

10 April 2021 at 11:48
I count myself lucky to have known Prince Philip since 1996.

Prince Philip’s controversial knightmare

10 April 2021 at 11:48
IT was not so much a case of the Queen not amused but more Prince Philip and the royal family bemused when in April 2015 she was forced to present her husband with his β€œAustralian knighthood”.

When Philip was accused of Diana kill plot

10 April 2021 at 11:48
Aside from his well-known gaffes, Prince Philip had enjoyed a relatively low-profile public image until 2008 when he was sensationally accused of ordering the assassination of Princess Diana.

Gun salutes fired cross UK in honour of the Duke of Edinburgh

10 April 2021 at 11:48
Gun salutes were fired from all corners of the United Kingdom and Gibraltar to mark the death of the late Duke of Edinburgh. Servicemen fired 41 rounds, one round every minute from midday, in cities such as London, Edinburgh and Cardiff.

The Crown cast hail Prince Philip β€˜the man’

10 April 2021 at 11:48
The actors who played the Duke of Edinburgh in the international smash hit The Crown TV series yesterday described Prince Philip simply as being β€œthe man”.

Prince Philip one of the β€˜truly great generation’ of people

10 April 2021 at 11:48
Royal commentator Annabelle Sanderson says Prince Philip was one of the β€œtruly great generation of people” who β€œstood loyally" by his wife for more than seven decades. β€œI always found Prince Philip to be a wonderful character – I know he always occasionally popped up saying controversial things – but this is a man who has stood loyally by his wife for over seven decades. β€œHe fought in the second world war, you know he’s one of the truly great generation of people … he was part of the country, where the queen was prince Philip was – you could see the support that he gave her.” Ms Sanderson also referred to the Harry and Meghan interview with Oprah Winfrey. She said Prince Philip was β€œshielded” from criticisms made by Ms Markle on the royal family and how important it would be for Harry to return home for the funeral. β€œSo now we have the situation of course where after β€˜that’ interview, you know, Prince Philip being shielded from some of the things that were said – but I can’t imagine that he would’ve not heard some of the comments that were made by Megan in particular – I hope that Harry does come back for the funeral – I think it would be really important for him to come back.”

1 Dead and 7 Hurt After Severe Storms in Louisiana

10 April 2021 at 11:43
Weather forecasters in Mobile, Ala., received reports of hail the size of softballs in some areas as a storm system moved into Florida.

Iran further breaches nuclear deal as talks with the US near 'impasse’

10 April 2021 at 11:39

US official doubts Iran’s seriousness about return to JCPOA.

Big Brother star Nikki Grahame dies aged 38

10 April 2021 at 11:38
The star, who appeared on the seventh series of Big Brother in 2006, had been fighting anorexia.

Brixton riots 40 years on: From policing to inequality, residents say β€˜progress slipping away’

10 April 2021 at 11:35

Many of the root causes of the original uprising still exist today, and Brixton, residents tell Nadine White, has endured β€˜a lot of trauma.’ But 40 years on, and optimism endures

Prince Philip: Charles says dear papa was very special

10 April 2021 at 11:32
The Prince of Wales says the Duke of Edinburgh would be "amazed" by the reaction to his death.

NI riots: Fourteen police hurt in another night of violence

10 April 2021 at 11:30
On the Good Friday Agreement's anniversary, the Irish PM warns against a "spiral back" to violence.

Expect Inflation To Accelerate? Here's 8 Reasons To Expect Decelerating Inflation

10 April 2021 at 11:30
Expect Inflation To Accelerate? Here's 8 Reasons To Expect Decelerating Inflation

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Lacy Hunt at Hoisington Management has some interesting thoughts regarding the inflation debate.

Case for Decelerating Inflation

In its Quarterly Review and Outlook for the First Quarter of 2021 Lacy Hunt makes a case for decelerating inflation.

Contrary to the conventional wisdom, disinflation is more likely than accelerating inflation. Since prices deflated in the second quarter of 2020, the annual inflation rate will move transitorily higher. Once these base effects are exhausted, cyclical, structural, and monetary considerations suggest that the inflation rate will moderate lower by year end and will undershoot the Fed Reserve’s target of 2%. The inflationary psychosis that has gripped the bond market will fade away in the face of such persistent disinflation.

After declining 5.2% in 2020, or the most since World War II, world-wide real per capita GDP is estimated to rise 4.7% in 2021. The United States will perform even better, rising 6.2%, after a contraction of 4.9% in 2020. The U.S. growth rate this year could be the fastest since 1984 and possibly even since 1950 (Chart 1).

Five considerations suggest that such growth is not likely to lead to sustaining inflation.Β 

Lacy said 5. I added a 6th bullet point from his discussion, then added 2 more points of my own.Β 

Six ReasonsΒ to Expect Disinflation

  1. Inflation is a lagging indicator, as classified by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The low in inflation occurred after all of the past four recessions, with an average lag of almost fifteen quarters from the end of the recessions. (Table 1 Inflation Troughs Below)

  2. Productivity rebounds in recoveries and vigorously so in the aftermath of deep recessions. This pattern in productivity is quite apparent after the deep recessions ending in 1949, 1958 and 1982 (Table 2 Below). Productivity rebounded by an average of 4.8% in the year immediately after the end of these three recessions and unit labor costs were unchanged. The rise in productivity held down unit labor costs.

  3. Restoration of supply chains will be disinflationary. Supply chains were badly disrupted by the pandemic. Low-cost producers in Asia and elsewhere were unable to deliver as much product into the United States and other relatively higher cost countries. This allowed U.S. producers to gain market share. As immunizations increase, supply chains will be gradually restored. Thus, the pandemic cost the low-cost producers market share which was shifted to domestic producers. The pandemic did far more for domestic firm’s

  4. Accelerated technological advancement will lower costs. Another restraint on inflation is that the pandemic greatly accelerated the implementation of inventions that were in the pipeline. Necessity is the mother of invention, as has been demonstrated in earlier crisis situations like wars. Thus, the technology du jour is not the same as the technology of a year ago. This will also serve to act as a restraint on inflation.Β Much of the technology substitutes machines for people, communication without travel, and work without offices.

  5. Eye popping economic growth numbers, based on GDP in present circumstances, greatly overstate the presumed significance of their result. This is where the fallacy of the broken glass comes into play. Many businesses failed in the recession of 2020, much more so than normal. As survivors and new firms take over their markets, this will be reflected in GDP, butΒ the costs of the failures will not be deducted.

  6. The two main structural impediments to traditional U.S. and global economic growth areΒ massive debt overhang and deteriorating demographicsΒ both having worsened as a consequence of 2020.

Inflation Troughs

Sharp Economic ReboundsΒ 

Mish Comments

Lacy is talking about "inflation" as measured by the BLS.

I am in 100% agreement with every point.Β 

Thus I expect bond yields to soon peak if they have not done so already.

Year-Over-Year Inflation Spike Coming

The above viewpoint is not incompatible with my March 12 postΒ Inflation is Poised to Soar, 3% by June is "Almost Certain"

Year-over-year comparisons produce very large numbers, up and down, heading in and out of recessions.

I commented "It's not that inflation will be rampant.Β Β Rather, it's the impact of year-over-year comparisons, goosed by a huge Covid-related dip in energy prices in April and May of 2020."

I also commentedΒ A Producer Price Index Inflation Spike Is On The Way Too

The rationale is the same. And as notedΒ Gas Prices Are Soaring, I Pay $3.28, How Much Do You Pay?

Hello Fed, Inflation is Rampant and Obvious, Why Can't You See It?

On March 30, I commentedΒ Hello Fed, Inflation is Rampant and Obvious, Why Can't You See It?

Q: Has my view change?
A: No.

Q: Is it inconsistent?
A: No.

Q: Why?
A:Β Lacy is talking about "inflation" as measured by the BLS. I addressed home prices in detail substituting home prices in the CPI for Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) in the CPI.

I stand by that measure of inflation and it's out of control.Β 

The Fed blew another set of bubbles and did so on purpose.Β 

Two Bonus Reasons to Expect Lower Inflation

  1. Bubbles Pop

  2. Higher Taxes

Lacy came up with six excellent reasons to expect lower inflation.Β To those we can easily add two more.

Bubbles Pop

The expansion of bubbles is highly inflationary and popping is the reverse.Β 

Please note theΒ Largest Increase in Margin Debt Since 2007 Fuels Stock Market

What happened in 2000 and 2007? I think you know the answer to that question.

Bubbles inevitably pop and the result, by definition, is not inflationary.Β 

Higher Taxes

Tax hikes are hugely disinflationary. Look at where we are headed.

Not all of those tax hikes will pass but some of them will.Β 

Biden wants to increase the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%. Look for a compromise at 25% or so.Β 

Progressives want huge tax hikes, via reconciliation, some of them will get through.Β 

These tax hikes are very recessionary and disinflationary.

Recovery in Low Paying Jobs

Finally, please noteΒ It's Been One Heck of a Recovery in Low-Paying Zoomer Jobs

That's not a big inducement to higher inflation either.

Add Things Up

Add it all up and you have 8 reasons to expect inflation will soon peak.Β 

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/10/2021 - 14:30

Could face masks prevent more than just COVID-19?

10 April 2021 at 11:28

As Israel’s allergy season hits, researchers show mask-wearing could offer some relief from allergy symptoms.

β€˜Man down at Augusta’: Billy Horschel has golf fans in hysterics as he SLIPS on the course during dramatic 13th hole (VIDEO)

10 April 2021 at 11:26
By: RT

American golfer BIll Horschel won't soon forget the 13th hole at Augusta during Saturday's action at the Masters after being caught on camera uttering an expletive shortly before SLIPPING down a hill in a bizarre series of events.

Horschel was already enduring an ignominious start to Saturday's play after squeaking past Friday's cut, but found himself struggling at five over par after both his short and long game appeared to desert him on one of the sport's biggest stages.

Little could prepare him for what he would experience on the 13th hole, with two separate incidents being caught on camera which have since spread like wildfire across social media.

The first came in the seconds after his tee shot on the 13th when, apparently unhappy with the direction his ball was travelling, Horschel bemoaned what he saw as a "sh*tty bounce".

Billy Horschel colorfully describes his thoughts on the bounce #Masters

β€” Heavens! (@HeavensFX) April 10, 2021

"What a sh*tty bounce. What aΒ sh*ttyΒ f*cking bounce," he said, in words which were picked up by television camera and broadcast live to an audience of millions watching from the comfort of their homes.

Horschel's antics on the 13th didn't end there after his approach shot skidded off the green and plunged into Rae's Creek.

Billy Horschel goes down! #themasters

β€” Slingn’ It Sports (@slingnitsports) April 10, 2021

Man down at Augusta. 😳

β€” Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) April 10, 2021

Can't believe I'm saying this, but everyone needs to be watching Billy Horschel on Featured Groups right now. Non-stop action.

β€” Garrett Morrison (@gfordgolf) April 10, 2021

He took off his shoes and socks and – well, appeared to slightly underestimate the gradient as Phil Mickelson looked on.

There were soon signs, though, that Horschel's luck might be about to turn, as the shot he took from the shore of Rae's Creek after his slip was a beauty, landing a few feet from the pin before he ultimately salvaged par.

This may well be the last action we see from the 34-year-old American at the Masters, though.

At the time of writing, he remains +4 – someΒ 11 shotsΒ behind the leader, England's Justin Rose.

China Knocks on Doors to Speed Up Covid-19 Vaccinations

10 April 2021 at 11:23
Infections are low and people aren’t in a hurry to get the shot, but officials are pushing for 40% of China’s population to be vaccinated by summer.

Palestinians β€˜optimistic’ about resumption of peace process

10 April 2021 at 11:22

It also renewed its commitment to the two-state solution β€œbased on the foundations of international legitimacy.”

Black US soldier sues police after being pepper-sprayed, held at gunpoint during traffic stop as VIDEO of incident sparks outrage

10 April 2021 at 11:22
By: RT

Two Virginia police officers are being sued by a US Army lieutenant after they were caught on film seemingly threatening and pepper-spraying the black man during a traffic stop after he repeatedly refused to exit his vehicle.

In a December 2020 bodycam video, which went viral after appearing online this week, officers Joe Gutierrez and Daniel Crocker could be heard ordering US Army Medical Corps Second Lieutenant Caron Nazario to leave his SUV over 40 times.

Nazario, however, did not comply and instead asked the officers what he was being stopped for and protested, "I'm actively serving this country and this is how you're going to treat me?"Β After claiming he was "afraid to get out" of his vehicle, one of the officers responded, "You should be, get out."

These cops should be arrested tonight

β€” Brandon Friedman (@BFriedmanDC) April 10, 2021

After he refused the order, one of the officers then sprayed Nazario in the face with pepper spray several times before telling him, "You made this way more difficult than it had to be if you'd just complied. Get out of the car!"

Nazario eventually complied with the order, but then refused to get on the ground, instead asking the officers what was going on. The officers could then be seen trying to get Nazario on the ground as he resisted and tearily called the situation "f*cked up."

This is disgusting, un-American, abusive, racists, and NOT representative of 99% of the men and women serving honorably in #Virginia as troopers, officers and sheriffs.

Throw these two off the force and make sure they are never hired again in any uniform anywhere β€”period.

β€” David I. Ramadan (@DavidIRamadan) April 10, 2021

Nazario is suing the two officers for allegedly violating his Constitutional rights, claiming he was racially profiled during the traffic stop, and referenced the words used by one of the officers – in particular the accusation that he was "fixin' to ride the lightning," which is reportedly a reference to execution by the electric chair.

The police, however, reportedly stopped Nazario for having no rear license plates on the vehicle, though Nazario had a temporary license plate "taped to the inside of his rear window," according to Vice News.

They also accused Nazario of "eluding" them, as he spent just under two minutes driving to a gas station before stopping, and also complained about the vehicle's tinted windows.

Gutierrez – a military veteran himself – claimed in his police report that he did not charge Nazario because he didn't want to ruin his career over an "erroneous decision," but Nazario's lawsuit claims he was told to "chill and let this go" following the incident or face charges.

As the video went public, many on social media scrambled to criticize the officers' behavior, calling it "disgusting," "un-American," and "abusive," and demanding that the two policemen be fired.

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Prince Philip includes nod to Australia in newly released, radically slimmed down funeral plans

The service will be attended by just 30 royal family members and feature a specially modified Land Rover designed by the late Duke of Edinburgh.

Erdogan urges end to Ukraine tension, offers Turkey’s support

Turkish president says tensions between Kyiv and Moscow over Donbass conflict have to be resolved through dialogue.